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Over the past 7 days, the US dollar index has risen. At the same time, US dollar was unable to update the 20-year high recorded 2 weeks ago. The main positive factor is investors' expectations that the Federal Reserve System (Fed) will raise the rate immediately by 0.5% to 2.25% at the next meeting on July 27th. Now CME FedWatch estimates the probability of such an event at 83.2%. The strengthening of the US dollar contributed to lower prices for precious metals and commodities. This, in turn, weakened the currencies of commodity countries: the South African rand, the Australian and New Zealand dollars. High natural gas prices in the European Union have pushed energy-intensive companies such as steelmaker ThyssenKrupp AG down. The ongoing crisis in Ukraine contributed to the weakening of the currencies of European countries that are not part of the euro area: the Polish zloty, Czech and Swedish krona. The Turkish lira has strengthened slightly due to the start of the tourist season. Investors expect an influx of foreign currency from tourists.

Over the past 7 days, the US dollar index has risen. Investors do not rule out a US Federal Reserve rate hike of 0.5% to 1.5% at the June 15 meeting. US 10-year Treasury trades with yields above 3% per annum. The Australian dollar strengthened as the Reserve Bank of Australia hiked its rate to 0.85% from 0.35%. Its growth at once by 0.5% was the first time in the last 20 years. The Canadian dollar and the Russian ruble strengthened against the backdrop of rising oil prices. The South African rand strengthened on strong Q1 2022 GDP data for South Africa (+1.9% q/q). The Japanese yen continued to weaken on the back of Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Haruhiko Kuroda's statement that a weak yen could have a positive impact on the Japanese economy. Japan Gross Domestic Product in Q1 2022 (-0.5% y/y) was better than expected (-1% y/y). This may help keep the BoJ loose monetary policy. The Turkish lira continued to weaken as the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey maintains its rate at 14% despite inflation rising to 73.5% y/y in May.

Over the past 7 days, the US dollar index has not changed much. Investors are waiting for the publication of data on the labor market for May (United States Nonfarm Payrolls), which will be released on Friday, June 3rd. They may affect the speed of tightening the Fed's monetary policy. The Canadian dollar strengthened on the Bank of Canada rate hike to 1.5% from 1%. Australia Gross Domestic Product rose 3.3% YoY in Q1 2022, more than expected. Australia Trade Balance in April also exceeded the forecast. This contributed to the strengthening of the Australian dollar. The Russian ruble weakened after the Bank of Russia cut the rate to 11% from 14%. The weakening of the Japanese yen was supported by preliminary data on the reduction of Japan Industrial Production in April. In addition, investors do not expect monetary policy tightening at the June 17th meeting of the Bank of Japan. The weakening of the euro was facilitated by the refusal to import Russian oil, as well as record pre-inflation in the EU in May of 8.1% y/y.

Over the past 7 days, the US dollar index continued to decline. According to FOMC Minutes for May, the Federal Reserve may raise the rate (1%) on June 15 and July 27 twice by 0.5%. Some representatives of the US regulator believe that after the rate reaches 2%, it is necessary to take a break. Such thoughts have a negative impact on the US currency. Especially, against the background of rising rates of most other world central banks. In particular, the strengthening of the New Zealand dollar was facilitated by the increase in the rate of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to 2% from 1.5%. The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey kept the rate at 14% despite high inflation (+70% y/y in April).

Over the past 7 days, the US dollar index has dropped significantly. Investors were disappointed that inflation fell very slightly in April - to 8.3% y/y from 8.5% in March. At the same time, the profitability of U.S. 10-Year Bond over the past 10 days has fallen quite noticeably - to 2.8% per annum from 3.2%. An additional negative was the increase in the number of new unemployed (United States Initial Jobless Claims) for the week. However, the US dollar did not fall into the loss leaders due to the fact that the euro and the currencies of European countries felt even worse against the backdrop of the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. The Norwegian krone weakened after negative Norway Goods Trade Balance data in April. In addition, a weak GDP for the 1st quarter was published there last week. Danish GDP in the 1st quarter also turned out to be worse than expected. The weakening of the Turkish lira is supported by high inflation (+70% y/y in April) amid the low rate of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (+14%). The Russian ruble continued to strengthen after Russia's decision to sell some natural raw materials for rubles. Strengthening of the Japanese yen was facilitated by good economic indicators. The increase in Japan Core Machinery Orders in March exceeded the forecast. Japanese exports continued to grow in April (+12.5% ​​y/y).

Over the past 7 days, the US dollar index has shown a strong growth. Investors expect the Fed to increase the rate to 1% from 0.5% at the May 4 meeting. US GDP fell in the 1st quarter of 2022 by (-1.4%). This happened for the first time since the 2nd quarter of 2020, since the beginning of the coronavirus epidemic. This negative has not yet prevented the strengthening of the US currency, as market participants hope for a resumption of economic growth in the next quarters of this year. The Japanese yen strengthened amid rumors of Bank of Japan foreign exchange interventions. On April 28, the USDJPY exchange rate exceeded 130 yen per US dollar for the first time in 20 years. This may cause concern to the Japanese authorities. The Russian ruble continued to strengthen after Russia's decision to sell some natural raw materials for rubles. The South African rand continued to weaken on the back of a downward correction in precious and non-ferrous metals. The currencies of the European countries of Poland and Norway weakened due to the continuation of the political crisis in Eastern Europe.

Over the past 7 days, the US dollar index has not changed much. Investors expect the Fed to increase the rate by another 0.5% at the May 4 meeting. Now the rate is 0.5% and looks very low against the backdrop of strong US inflation in March (+8.5% y/y). The Canadian dollar strengthened on the Bank of Canada (BoC) rate hike to 1% from 0.5% last week. We note that in March, Canadian inflation reached 6.7% y/y and exceeded the forecast (+4.9% y/y). Theoretically, because of this, the rate hike could continue. However, the next meeting of the BoC will not take place soon - on June 1. The South African rand weakened amid poor economic performance. Inflation in South Africa reached 5.9% y/y. This is above the South African Reserve Bank rate, which is currently 4.25%. The next meeting of the bank will be on May 19. In addition, the decline in South Africa Mining Production by 6.4% m/m turned out to be worse than the forecast (-0.2% m/m). In general, against the background of the stabilization of the US dollar, there has been a slight decrease in prices for commodities. This had a negative impact not only on the South African rand, but also on the Australian and New Zealand dollars.

Over the past 7 days, the US dollar index has continued to rise and has updated a new 2-year high. Investors expect the Fed to increase the Fed rate by another 0.5% at the meeting on May 4. Now the rate is 0.5% and looks very low against the background of powerful US inflation in March (+8.5% y/y). A similar situation is observed in Britain. High inflation (+7% y/y) in March could also strengthen expectations of a Bank of England (+0.75%) rate hike. The increase in the price of US natural gas was supported by good demand for liquefied natural gas (LNG) in the European Union after the imposition of sanctions on Russian pipeline gas supplies. The strengthening of the Russian ruble continued thanks to Russia's decision to sell natural gas and some other resources for rubles. The New Zealand dollar weakened despite the increase in the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to 1.5% from 1%. Investors fear high inflation in New Zealand according to data for the 1st quarter of this year. They will be published on April 20th. In the 4th quarter consumer prices increased by 5.9% y/y. The Australian dollar weakened despite good labor market data for March.

Over the past 7 days, the US dollar index has grown noticeably and has reached a new high since May 2020. This was supported by good data on the labor market for March (United States Nonfarm Payrolls). Investors are waiting for the Fed's rate hike (0.5%) immediately by another 0.5% at the next meeting on May 4th. The strengthening of the Russian ruble continued due to the decision of Russia to sell natural gas and some other resources for rubles. As a result, US natural gas showed good growth. The increase in world prices for liquefied natural gas and coal caused the strengthening of the Australian dollar. The growth leaders were also shares of the social network Twitter, which invited the famous businessman Elon Musk (the founder of Tesla) to its board of directors. The leaders of the fall were the euro and the currencies of European countries: the Danish, Swedish and Czech crowns, as well as the Polish zloty. This happened against the backdrop of an ongoing political crisis in Eastern Europe.

Over the past 7 days, the US dollar index fell within a 4-week neutral range. Investors are awaiting the publication of important data on the labor market for March United States Nonfarm Payrolls, which will be released on Friday, April 1st. The Russian ruble has been among the gainers for the 2nd week. This is due to the decision of Russia to sell natural gas and some other resources for rubles. Against this backdrop, gas and coal quotations continued to rise, which caused the China Shenhua shares to rise in price. The 3-week weakening of the yen was supported by the Bank of Japan's loose monetary policy. However, some investors now do not exclude its tightening.

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