Weekly Outlook, 11-15 July | IFCM Türkiye
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Weekly Outlook, 11-15 July

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Brief and vital

We have more data to watch this week, mainly on Wednesday and Friday, but it is not a heavy week. After the heavy storms of economic data and geopolitical events in the last two weeks, we are going to have a slight week, but with a potential for unforeseen events. Along with too much economic data, the G20 meeting, Abe's assassination, and Boris Johansson's resignment made last week a history week.

UK GDP – Wednesday

While we will have the first impacts of home electricity and energy prices increase, the latest published data, especially retail sales in recent months, were also decreasing, signing for lower GDP numbers in May. For May, the consensus expectation is -0.3%, to confirm the negative result for the second month in a row. Numbers still supports the BoE's hawkish policies and another 25 bps rate hike. These expected data cannot support the UK's stock markets.

US Inflation – Wednesday (USD INDEX)

Although we are waiting to see the negative impact of slower economic growth on inflation and push it lower, it is not likely in June numbers, it may happen in the next two months. For June, we are waiting to see another increase to 8.8% in the headline number, up from 8.4%. These numbers will support the FED for another 75 bps rate hike which means increasing US Dollar. Due to the expectations of lower energy prices in the following months, prices will probably start decreasing. However, food prices can stay the primary concern.

RBNZ meeting – Wednesday

Reserve Bank of New Zealand will hold its monetary policy meeting and interest rate decision this Wednesday. Overall expectations are for another 50 bps rate hike in the July meeting as well, to make it the third consecutive rate hike. Even if it can not lift the Kiwi against its crosses, but may pause the bears.

Bank of Canada Policy meeting – Wednesday

Thanks to the oil price, economic growth in Canada seems fine; at least, it is not worrying like many other economies. While higher oil prices helped the Canadian economy in the past months, inflation also was increasing. CPI in May increased by 7.7% annually. Inflation is increasing, which means it is so likely to see even more tightening policies from the Bank of Canada even with a 75 bps rate hike, while overall expectations are for 50 bps. The economic growth in Canada will slow down in the following months, and Loonie can still continue its path of weakness.

China GDP – Friday

After a heavy Wednesday, Friday also should be a challenging day, starting with GDP numbers in China. Economic growth in the second quarter is expected to slow down to 0.6% from 1.3%, with a 4.4% annual growth. While many international factors like supply chain disruptions can hurt the GDP numbers, we know that China can buy cheaper oil from Russia now, which decreasing the production price, so seeing an upside surprise should not surprise us!

US Retail Sales & Industrial Production- Friday

After a 0.3% decrease in May numbers, with higher prices, it is expected to see that retail sales to increase by 0.8% in Jun. However, it is mainly in the nominal numbers. By adjusting the inflation rate to these numbers, actual sales should decrease. On the production front, expectations are for another 0.1% growth in June, the same as May. These positive expected data should support the US stock markets on the last day of the week, after the first days' decrease.

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